Almost half of U.S. shoppers started Halloween buying before October and 46% plan to start holiday shopping before November. Yet many brands still save most of their ad budget for the final weeks. Marketing experts say brands should run holiday ads in stages from early November to Christmas and avoid the Halloween mistake
Class Ring
October 19, 2026. Holiday shoppers are starting early, just as Halloween shoppers did this fall, a pattern that matters for retailers planning holiday ads now. But many brands still time their ads for the final weeks. Almost half of U.S. consumers planned to join the Halloween rush in September or earlier, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
For the holidays, research by marketing platform Attentive finds that 46% of shoppers start buying before November. Adobe forecasts that Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, will bring in only 17.3% of the $275.1 billion Americans will spend online in November and December.
“Many brands spend most of their ad budget in the last weeks of a holiday. Halloween showed what that costs: by late October, a lot of shoppers have already bought their costumes,” said Donatas Smailys, co-founder and CEO of creator ad platform Billo. “The holidays give brands a second shot, and the ones that roll out their ads in stages will catch shoppers while they’re still deciding what to buy.”
Ten years ago, only 34% of shoppers started Halloween shopping before October. This year, NRF expects Americans to spend $13.5 billion on the holiday, with costumes taking the largest share at $4.4 billion.
What ads should show at each stage of the holidays
An ad that works in early November stops working by Cyber Monday. Donatas Smailys splits the holiday season into three stages, and Adobe’s forecast shows what changes in each:
● Early November: shoppers look for gift ideas. Videos should show the product in use, such as someone unwrapping it, wearing it, or using it at home, so viewers can picture who it is for. Discounts are still small at this point, at up to 14% off listed prices, so the idea has to sell the product.
● Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday: shoppers hunt for deals. Discounts peak at up to 30% off during Cyber Week. As 63% of online spending on Thanksgiving is expected to be done on mobile devices, videos should display the price and the deal's end date.
● December: shoppers need gifts on time. Discounts settle at 10% to 15% for most of the month, so delivery matters more than price. Videos should say when to order for delivery by December 25 and which stores will have the item for pickup.
“A brand can get all three videos from one shoot if it decides what each one is for before filming. The same creator can film the unboxing, the price comparison and a quick ‘order by’ clip in one afternoon. Filming this way costs far less than three separate campaigns and keeps the brand in front of shoppers for the whole season,” Donatas Smailys said.
What brands can do now, before the holiday rush
Brands can still start holiday ads before the rush and move more of their budget to creators and social media. Holiday buying is already under way: Adobe expects $95.8 billion in U.S. online spending in October, up 8% from last year, and forecasts that social media’s share of holiday online revenue will grow 17%, compared with 4% for paid search.
With November two weeks away, Donatas Smailys suggests four steps:
- Post the first holiday videos before November. Early shoppers make many of their choices before the big sales, so the first videos should give them gift ideas.
- Check which Halloween videos worked. Results from each stage of the Halloween season show which formats and creators to use again for the holidays.
- Give creators and social media a bigger share of the budget. More shoppers now find products in their social feeds, and the ad budget should follow them there.
- Use AI for the groundwork. AI tools help brands draft ideas and scripts faster before a real creator steps in front of the camera.
“Halloween was the rehearsal, and the brands that learned from it are already creating their holiday videos. However, waiting for Black Friday means paying peak ad prices to reach shoppers who have mostly decided what to buy,” said Donatas Smailys, co-founder and CEO of creator ad platform Billo.
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About Billo
Billo is the leading UGC marketplace founded in 2019 that connects brands with creators to produce high-performing social video ads. It is based in Lithuania, built for US needs, and led by co-founder and CEO Donatas Smailys. The platform combines the power of UGC content with a streamlined production process, helping brands increase brand awareness, drive traffic, and boost conversions with authentic creator videos on TikTok, Meta, YouTube, and other platforms.
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